If you were to tell me that the 49ers would be having an abysmal 2015 after appearing in the Super Bowl two years ago, I would’ve thought you were crazy. After all, in 2013, they had the 3rd best point differential in the league (Points Scored minus Points Allowed), one of the top defenses statistically and on paper, and teams couldn’t figure out how to defend Quarterback Colin Kaepernick for the life of them. But, all good things do come to an end.

San Francisco’s misfortunes began all the way back in March of 2015 when the league year officially began. Around this time teams could begin contacting players and their agents regarding their contracts and status with the team. Unfortunately, the 2015 off-season for the 49ers was actually ranked as the worst in NFL history. They had a combination of star players retiring, the departure of their head coach, and losing pivotal players to other teams or due to legal reasons. This is literally incomparable to any other team’s off-season; no other team had ever suffered more losses than the 49ers did. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh accepted an offer for the same position at the University of Michigan; running back Frank Gore, guard Mike Iupati, and wide receiver Michael Crabtree – three important players – were lost in free agency; linebackers Chris Borland and Patrick Lewis both unexpectedly retired; talented defensive end/ linebacker Aldon Smith was released due to legal issues (That was a mouthful).

San Francisco hasn’t been able to catch a break coming into the season either. One of the more devastating aspects about sports is injuries. Any player at any time can suffer an injury that can impact the entirety of the season. Take the Dallas Cowboys as an example: In the beginning of the season, Dallas lost star players Tony Romo and Dez Bryant in consecutive games. Bryant eventually came back in Week 8, but Romo has yet to fully recover and Dallas has lost 6 consecutive games without him. This goes to show the massive impact injuries can have on a team. For the 49ers this season, they’ve been hit with a plethora of injuries. Many players have been forced out for several games due to injuries, including: Anquan Boldin, Carlos Hyde, and Torrey Smith. A team can’t live up to its full potential if they’re not fully healthy for at least a portion of the season.

There were low expectations coming into the year for San Francisco, but I doubt anyone expected them to be playing this bad. One player who should be shouldering a lot of the blame is Colin Kaepernick. Like I said earlier, Kaepernick used to be able to torch defenses with his legs, and also be able to rocket the football to his receivers. But this season, he hasn’t been able to do these things. With a 2-6 record so far in the season, the whole team’s confidence, and especially Kaepernick’s, is completely shot.

Kaepernick was drafted with the 45th overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft out of the University of Nevada. Other notable quarterbacks that were also drafted include Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, and Tyrod Taylor. Yes, none of these players have led their teams to a Super Bowl appearance like Kaepernick has, but they’ve been able to develop into formidable quarterbacks. Cam Newton and Andy Dalton have led the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals, respectively, to undefeated starts to the season; Tyrod Taylor, who recently came back from an MCL injury, has a record of 5-2 as a starter this season for the Buffalo Bills.

All of these quarterbacks have the ability to lead their teams to a playoff run, and they’ve been able to adapt to their current situations and adjust their play accordingly. On the flip side, one of the biggest criticisms of Kaepernick is his inability to develop as a pocket passer and survey the defense to make the best play. Quarterbacks like Peyton Manning have made a living off picking apart defenses with his pre-snap reads and audibles. Manning is able to read a defense and decide, based off his reads, what play will be able to gain the most yards. Here’s an example of Manning surveying the defense; all those hand motions are signals to his teammates on what adjustments he wants to make:

Typically in the game of football, defenses don’t want to give up big plays. These big plays can lead to touchdowns, and the defense doesn’t want this to happen. One way the defense can prevent big plays from occurring is to have a player account for each offensive player. Commonly, cornerbacks cover receivers, safeties cover deep threats, defensive linemen try to take down the quarterback, and linebackers can cover tight ends and/or running backs. Well, on Sunday, November 1st, the 49ers faced off versus one their division rivals: the St. Louis Rams. Coming into the game with a 2-5 record, the Niners were trying to bounce back from a lopsided loss to the Seattle Seahawks. The Rams, on one particular play in the game, completely left two 49er receivers uncovered, obviously forcing Kaepernick to throw the ball to one of these receivers. Given that San Francisco was pinned back on their own 5 yard-line, these yards were much needed in order to have more room to operate the offense. Also, teams usually run the ball when they’re deep in their own territory, and the defense can see they were going to run the ball. Audibling to a pass would’ve been a smart thing to do, to say the least. Well, here’s how it played out:

You can see how open the receivers were on the top and bottom of the screen, and how frustrated they were that they didn’t get the ball.

These last two weeks haven’t gotten any better for San Francisco. Head Coach Jim Tomsula benched Kaepernick to give him time to get his head straight; back-up Blaine Gabbert got the start versus the Atlanta Falcons, and San Francisco actually won the game. In a press conference Wednesday, November 4, Tomsula defended Kaepernick, saying: “In no way is 2-6 all on Colin Kaepernick. That’s all of us … this is a guy I care about a lot. This is a guy that I respect a lot. This is a guy that I think has talent.”

He’s right. Some of the blame should be going to Kaepernick, but not all of it. The defense is nothing like the unit they had a couple of years ago. Key players like Patrick Lewis and Justin Smith aren’t on the team anymore. This season’s defense has been lit up throughout the entirety of the season, something that rarely happened in prior years. The 49ers gave up a combined 90 points in Weeks 2 and 3 to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals, respectively; the offense only scored 25 points in those games. The defense gives up the 5th most yards per game in the league with 403.8 yards, they’ve allowed the 7th most points in the league with 528 points, and give up the 3rd most yards per play with 6.1 yards (stats via nfl.com). All of these combined are a recipe for disaster.

After head coach Jim Harbaugh left San Francisco, the team needed a new leader. In January, Defensive Line Coach Jim Tomsula was promoted to the head coaching job. This was a good move in the sense of keeping familiarity, but in terms of hiring the best man for the job, maybe it wasn’t that good of a move. Tomsula’s only experience as an NFL head coach was Week 17 of the 2010 season when he was named the interim head coach for a game after the team fired then coach Mike Singletary. Other notable names that were available for the job were Rex Ryan, Josh McDaniels, and Todd Bowles; all guys who could’ve brought in a new culture into the locker room. Ultimately, they sided with familiarity over experience in hiring Tomsula. Being with the team for the past 7 years really helped him land the job, as players who have been around him vouched for his ability to become the next head coach.

Despite Tomsula’s closeness with the team, it seems he wasn’t the answer to the 49ers’ problem; the team is 3-6 and can’t seem to catch a break. Despite that, we can’t forget that it’s Tomsula’s first year as head coach, so San Francisco’s front office might have a little more patience when it comes to firing Tomsula. That patience will eventually run out, and unless the team starts to win games, the organization will have to move on from Tomsula.

If you look at the most successful NFL franchises since the year 2000, you can see a pattern in the teams. Organizations like the Patriots, Colts, and Packers all have or had the same thing: a great quarterback and coach combination. The Patriots have Brady and Belichick; the Colts had Manning and Dungy; the Packers had Favre and McCarthy and now have Rodgers and McCarthy. It’s essential, in a now quarterback driven league, to have a quarterback that can lead the team to the promise land. After examining Kaepernick’s development, or lack thereof, it’s easy to point out that he isn’t the solution to San Francisco’s problem. Whether he needs time during the offseason to improve his game or if he needs time now to get his head straight, he just isn’t the answer. Also, Coach Tomsula isn’t wired the way successful coaches usually are. In other words, he doesn’t have that ‘it’ factor that Jim Harbaugh, for example, had when he coached the 49ers. And to add a cherry on top, the defensive unit isn’t doing enough and they’re putting the offense in desperate situations. It all comes together in the end for San Francisco: bad offense + bad coaching + bad defense = bad season. The organization needs to start looking ahead to future seasons and might want to consider some major moves if they want to return to their once great relevance.